Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Special K-- Best OU Shooter Ever

I must say, I did not expect this result. But the stats don't lie -- Erik Kangas is the best shooter in Oakland University Division 1 History. SO FAR. The numbers are so close between Kangas and second-place Jason Rozycki that a few Kangas hiccups during his remaining career could drop him down two spots in the pecking order. Now, the details on how I reached the Kangas conclusion:

How I Arrived At The Title of "Best Shooter Ever"
It was a complicated process...one that took many hours, several Red Bulls and a lot of patience from Mrs. E4. I started by taking a look at players who scored at least 1,000 points at OU in Division 1. Two players, Rozycki and Brad Buddenborg, played a year of D2, which does not count in my calculations. However, they each scored over 1,000 points in their three years of D1.

Secondly, I looked solely at players that "shot" the ball. Translation: Big men need not apply. The guys on this list had to at least attempt a few threes. We'll save the "Best Big Man" debate for another day.

As for the stats, I looked beyond Field Goal Percentages and the like and focused on two key stats: True Shooting Percentage and Effective Field Goal Percentage. True Shooting Percentage calculates what a player’s shooting percentage would be if we accounted for free throws and 3-pointers. True Shooting Percentage = (Total points x 50) divided by [(FGA + (FTA x 0.44)]. John Hollinger calculates NBA TS% for ESPN (It's an Insider feature, hence no link). But as a frame of reference, Steve Nash has a TS% of .648 (59% FG%, 90% FT%).

Effective FG% adjusts for the fact that a 3-point field goal is worth one more point than a 2-point field goal, with a formula of (FG + 0.5 *3P) /FGA. I accounted for this stat because again, these are shooters, not big men.

From there, I did something unconventional, but not unheard of: I added the two percentages together, similar to the way baseball does with OPS (on-base plus slugging). Since I didn't want to solely use one of the stats, this provided a happy medium. Could it be flawed? Maybe. But after looking at the numbers 100 different ways, the conclusion I came to by adding these stats made the most sense.

An Active Player Can Win?
Yes. The reason I left an active player in the equation is because Kangas has played enough games in his career that we can somewhat project that he'll hover around his current pace. Secondly, we can only count three years of Rizz's career because he played at a Division 2 level his freshman year. In his three years in D1, Rizz played a total of 81 games. Kangas has played 71 thus far. In my estimation, that made Kangas a candidate for the award.

The Numbers
As I mentioned in the intro, this was (is) a close battle between two gunners, Special K Erik Kangas and "The Rizz," Jason Rozycki. One from the old school, one from the new school.

As you'll see, the top 5 came from distinct eras of OU basketball: The Early Years, The Helms Era, The Rawle Era, and the Team Era, as I like to call them.

Players' rank in OU History appears in ( ) next to their respective stats.

1. Erik Kangas
eFG%: 54.9% (1)
TS%: 57.1% (2)
eFG+TS: 111.99 (1)

Anyway you slice the numbers, EK comes out on top. He wins the eFG battle by nearly 3%, a substantial margin, while only losing TS% by about 1%. Clearly, EK's eFG is buoyed by his 3-point percentage, which is a career 38%, second all-time at OU (D1) compared to others who have shot a similar number of threes. And if you looks at the basic stats, Kangas has a better FG% and a better 3-PT percentage than Rozycki, and the second-best FT% in OU D1 history (.001 lower than Brandon Cassise).

By combining the eFG and TS percentages, Kangas comes out on top. If his shoulder heals up this year, this team will be a force.

2. Jason Rozycki
eFG%: 50.8% (3)
TS%: 58.2% (1)
eFG+TS: 109.03 (2)

I always remember this Kampe quote regarding Rizz: "He's always been a gunner." Hailing from Boyne, Rizz came to OU with that mentality in mind, and never disappointed. I always thought of him as deadly from 3-point range, but a 35% career percentage says he wasn't the deadliest. But man, all he did was shoot the money ball.

Rozycki does rank first overall in career TS%, which is no small feat. But an overall FG% of 38% -- lowered by the fact that nearly 70% of his shots were taken from three-range -- relegates Rizz to second place in this competition.

3. Brad Buddenborg
eFG%: 51.6% (2)
TS%: 56.3% (3)
eFG+TS: 107.87 (2)

With the prettiest shot you'll ever see, Bud had some magical games at the O'Rena. I can remember many a game where Bud buried a big shot, or put the team on his back for long stretches. Unfortunately, after Helms arrived Bud was sometimes buried on on the bench -- he started only 18 of 31 games in2001-2002. Nevertheless, his stats speak for themselves, and third place on this list of shooters is pretty darn good.

4. Mike Helms
eFG%: 49.1% (4)
TS%: 58.4% (4)
eFG+TS: 103.96 (4)

Despite the sulking, the selfishness and periods of poor shot selection, Helms remains to this day my favorite player to watch -- ever. Maybe it's because I sat behind his parents for his entire OU career, and they were some of the nicest people you'll ever meet. Maybe it was the way he could create his own shot. Or maybe it was the multiple 30 and 40 point games. Whatever it was, Mike Helms was the face of this team for 4 seasons. I simply don't think this basketball program would be where it is today without Puda. From a recruiting standpoint, he, along with Kelly Williams, were the original members of OU's 313 connection (soon to be joined by Rawle, Shawn Hopes, Curtis Gilmore, Courtney Williams and more), and opened a lot of Detroit athletes to the Oakland University program.

Helms is also the only player in Oakland D1 history to hit the 700 point mark in a season, amassing 752 in 2002-2003. He almost did it again in 2003-2004, falling only five points shy of the mark. Big time player in an era when Oakland needed one most.

5. Rawle Marshall
eFG%: 48.6% (5)
TS%: 54.3% (5)
eFG+TS: 103.96 (5)

Rawle and Mike overlapped for a couple seasons, meaning Rawle didn't assume leadership of the team until 2004-2005. Is it a coincidence that this is also the year OU made the NCAA tournament for the first time?

After transferring from Ball State, everyone in the building could tell Marshall would be a star. At first he and Helms meshed as members of the 313, leading the team to a 17-11 record. But riffs during their second season together (2003-2004) seemed to separate the two, and the team suffered through an inconsistent 13-17 season that included two 5-game losing streaks.

Rawle's last and best season at Oakland was Helmsless, and despite a lackluster regular season, the team went to the NCAAs and won its play-in game (which included the most thunderous dunk in OU history by Rawle) before falling to North Carolina in the first round of 64. Rawle led the team in scoring 20 out of 30 games -- a feat only matched by Helms.

Rawle had an awkward shot, and he could never seem to take over a game like Helms when it mattered most (exception: play-in game where he drained 29). But still, he was long and lanky, and remains OU's lone graduate to the NBA.

There you have it...the best shooters in OU Division 1 history. The next step is to determine the "All-time OU D1 Team," where I'll ask you the readers to assist me in making the big decisions. If you have some early thoughts or OU memories you;d like to share, email me at goldengrizzlies@gmail.com.

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